Political Characteristics Analysis

June 23, 2020

Document History
Summary
Margin of Victory
Turnout
Effective number of parties
Number of candidates
Turncoat
Same party
Incumbent
Recontest
Number of terms
Constituency type
Raphael
Vote dispersion

Document History

Original Publish Date: 23 June, 2020

Updated on: 07 September, 2020

In this post we analyse the political characteristics of the family politicians using the TCPD elections data. We use elections data starting from 1974 to 2019. Throughout the entire post we are just using taking the plain mean of all the variables.

Summary

The break-up of the sample data can be sen here

Table 1: Summary of the data
election_type	Family	Non-family
AE	0.09	0.91
GE	0.19	0.81

Margin of Victory

Table 2: Margin of victory wrt Politicians identity
election_type	Family	Non-family
AE	10.9	11.4
GE	16.2	14.8

Turnout

Table 3: Turnout percentage wrt Politicians identity
election_type	Family	Non-family
AE	55.3	51
GE	53.0	52

Table 4: Turnout percentage wrt contest type
election_type	fam v/s fam	fam v/s non-fam	non-fam v/s fam	non-fam v/s non-fam
AE	58.1	54.8	55.9	50.6
GE	54.0	52.7	54.4	51.7

Effective number of parties

Table 5: Effective number of parties wrt Politicians identity
election_type	Family	Non-family
AE	3.6	3.7
GE	3.2	3.3

Number of candidates

Table 6: Number of candidates wrt Politicians identity
election_type	Family	Non-family
AE	14.7	14.3
GE	17.8	15.4

Turncoat

Table 7: Turncoats proportion wrt Politicians identity
election_type	Family	Non-family
AE	0.17	0.24
GE	0.12	0.19

Same party

Table 8: Party retention wrt Politicians identity
election_type	Family	Non-family
AE	0.61	0.47
GE	0.79	0.63

Incumbent

Table 9: Proportion of incumbents wrt Politicians identity
election_type	Family	Non-family
AE	0.24	0.22
GE	0.48	0.26

Recontest

Table 10: Proportion of recontestants wrt Politicians identity
election_type	Family	Non-family
AE	0.45	0.44
GE	0.67	0.47

Number of terms

Table 11: Number of terms wrt Politicians identity
election_type	Family	Non-family
AE	1.7	1.6
GE	2.5	1.8

Constituency type

Table 12: Constituency type wrt Politicians identity
election_type	constituency_type	Family	Non-family
AE	GEN	0.87	0.77
AE	SC	0.13	0.23
GE	GEN	0.90	0.77
GE	SC	0.10	0.23

Raphael

Vote dispersion

Raphael’s booth level data is available for the last 3 UP assembly elections. We use the booth level voting data to see the spread of the vote share.

Table 13: Vote dispersion at booth level wrt Politicians identity
Politician’s Identity	Variance
Family	354
Non-family	341

Table 14: Vote dispersion at booth level wrt Politicians identity
Politician’s Identity	SD
Family	18.6
Non-family	18.2